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Q15(ii)(a):
Five cards—the ten, jack, queen, king and ace of diamonds, are well-shuffled with their face downwards. One card is then picked up at random. (ii) If the queen is drawn and put aside, what is the probability that the second card picked up is (a) an ace?

Solution :

Given:

A set of five cards consisting of the ten, jack, queen, king, and ace of diamonds. One card (the queen) is drawn and set aside.

To Find:

The probability that the second card picked up is an ace.

Step 1: Defining the Sample Space

Initially, the set of cards is $S = \{10, J, Q, K, A\}$. The total number of cards is $n(S) = 5$.

Step 2: Updating the Sample Space after the first draw

According to the problem, the queen ($Q$) is drawn and put aside. We must determine the remaining cards in the deck for the second draw.

Let $S'$ be the new sample space after removing the queen:

$S' = \{10, J, K, A\}$

The total number of remaining cards is $n(S') = 5 - 1 = 4$.

Step 3: Identifying the Favorable Outcomes

We are looking for the probability of picking an ace ($A$).

Let $E$ be the event of picking an ace from the remaining cards.

The favorable outcomes in $S'$ are: $E = \{A\}$.

The number of favorable outcomes is $n(E) = 1$.

Step 4: Applying the Probability Formula

The probability of an event $P(E)$ is defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes in the sample space.

$P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S')}$

Substituting the values identified in the previous steps:

$P(E) = \frac{1}{4}$

Step 5: Conclusion

Since there is only one ace remaining in a deck of four cards, the probability is calculated as $0.25$ or $25\%$.

Final Answer: The probability that the second card picked up is an ace is $\frac{1}{4}$.


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